I don’t know much about betting, but I’m starting to think maybe the oddsmakers in Las Vegas should stick to sports and leave space to the nerds. In the October 2015 issue of Popular Mechanics, the magazine got sports handicapper Raphael Esparza of Doc’s Sports Service to come up with some odds on who will be the first to put a human on Mars. To my eyes, the resulting odds are…odd. The way Esparza figures it, SpaceX and Elon Musk have the best shot at getting to the Red Planet first because “they have the desire and the funds” — he gives Musk 5-to-1 odds of winning the race to Mars. What makes this a wacky set of odds is that he puts Russia getting there first at 60-to-1, NASA at 80-to-1, China at 100-to-1 and the European Space Agency at 300-to-1. But not only does Esparza believe that SpaceX — with its revenues largely derived from NASA — is over 10 times more likely to get to Mars first than any of the major, publicly funded space programs, he also thinks Mars One has a much better shot at winning the race. Remember Mars One? The controversial nonprofit effort… Read full this story
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